|
|
|
|
|
BUSH |
KERRY |
NADER |
OTHER |
|
Margin |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Bush |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ELECTION RESULTS
Based on certified results, compiled by the Committee for
the Study of the American Electorate |
50.75 |
48.30 |
0.36 |
0.59 |
|
2.45 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pollster Vote Projections |
|
|
DETAILS |
Survey |
BUSH |
KERRY |
NADER |
OTHER |
|
Margin |
|
|
|
Dates |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Bush |
Kerry |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zogby |
11/1-2 |
49.4 |
49.1 |
|
|
|
0.3 |
|
|
|
Battleground: Tarrance
(R) * |
10/31 - 11/1 |
51.2 |
47.8 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
3.4 |
|
|
|
Battleground: Lake
(D) ** |
10/31 - 11/1 |
48.6 |
50.7 |
|
|
|
|
2.1 |
|
|
TIPP |
10/30 - 11/1 |
50.1 |
48.0 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
|
2.1 |
|
|
|
Harris |
10/29 - 11/1 |
49 |
48 |
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
Democracy Corps (D) |
10/29-31 |
48.7 |
49.5 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
|
|
0.8 |
|
|
Gallup |
10/29-31 |
49 |
49 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Pew Research Center |
10/27-30 |
51 |
48 |
1 |
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Trial Heats
*** |
|
|
|
|
OTHER/ |
|
|
|
|
DETAILS |
Survey |
BUSH |
KERRY |
NADER |
UNSURE |
|
Margin |
|
|
|
Dates |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Bush |
Kerry |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Marist College |
11/1 |
49 |
50 |
- |
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
GWU Battleground |
10/31 - 11/1 |
50 |
46 |
1 |
4 |
|
4 |
|
|
|
TIPP |
10/30 - 11/1 |
48.6 |
45.3 |
0.9 |
5.2 |
|
3.3 |
|
|
|
CBS News |
10/29 - 11/1 |
49 |
47 |
1 |
3 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
FOX News |
10/30-31 |
46 |
48 |
1 |
5 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
CNN/USA Today/Gallup |
10/29-31 |
49 |
47 |
- |
4 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
Democracy Corps (D) |
10/29-31 |
47 |
48 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
NBC News/Wall St Journal |
10/29-31 |
48 |
47 |
1 |
4 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
Zogby
**** |
10/29-31 |
48 |
47 |
1 |
4 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
ABC News |
10/28-31 |
49 |
48 |
1 |
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
Washington Post |
10/28-31 |
49 |
48 |
1 |
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
American Research Group |
10/28-30 |
48 |
48 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Pew Research Center |
10/27-30 |
48 |
45 |
1 |
6 |
|
3 |
|
|
|
Newsweek |
10/27-29 |
50 |
44 |
1 |
5 |
|
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
PollingReport.com |
|
|
_________________
* Tarrance projection based on unaided trial heat question.
** Lake Snell Perry projection based on aided trial heat question.
*** Final Trial Heats: Based on surveys of
likely voters, with leaners included.
**** Zogby: Last set of unallocated results
released, although polling continued through election day. |
|
|
Four More Years
The
Harris
Poll. Nov. 9-14, 2004.
N=1,014 adults nationwide. MoE ±
3 (for all adults). |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Overall do you think that the election process
for the presidential election was or was not conducted fairly?" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Was |
Was Not |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
ALL |
81 |
16 |
4 |
|
|
|
Republicans |
95 |
4 |
1 |
|
|
|
Democrats |
68 |
27 |
4 |
|
|
|
Independents |
83 |
15 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Do you think that there
are
many, some, only a few or no attempts to intimidate or prevent legitimate
voters from voting?" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Many |
Some |
A Few |
None |
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
ALL |
8 |
23 |
26 |
39 |
4 |
|
Republicans |
2 |
15 |
31 |
50 |
2 |
|
Democrats |
12 |
26 |
24 |
35 |
3 |
|
Independents |
10 |
27 |
25 |
35 |
4 |
|
|
Pew
Research Center survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates
International. Nov. 5-8, 2004. N=1,209 adults
nationwide who said they voted in the 2004 general election. MoE ±
3.5 (for the total sample). Respondents were also
interviewed in Oct. 2004. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"What one issue mattered most
to you in deciding how you voted for president?"
Open-ended.
Multiple responses accepted. Asked of Bush and Kerry voters. Form 1 (N=569). |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
Iraq/The
war |
27 |
|
|
|
|
Economy/Jobs |
14 |
|
|
|
|
Moral
values |
9 |
|
|
|
|
Terrorism/Security |
9 |
|
|
|
|
Honesty/Integrity |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Other Bush |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Other
Kerry |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Health
care |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Abortion |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Direction
of the country |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Candidate's religiosity, morals |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Strength/Leadership |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Foreign
policy |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Gay
marriage/Marriage |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Don't
change course |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Other |
15 |
|
|
|
|
Unsure/Nothing/Everything |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Which ONE issue mattered most
to you in deciding how you voted for president . . .
?"
Respondents read list of options below. Options
rotated. Asked of Bush and Kerry voters. Form 2 (N=567). |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
ALL |
BUSH
Voters |
KERRY
Voters |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Moral
values |
27 |
44 |
7 |
|
|
|
Iraq |
22 |
11 |
34 |
|
|
|
Economy/Jobs |
21 |
7 |
36 |
|
|
|
Terrorism |
14 |
24 |
3 |
|
|
|
Health
care |
4 |
1 |
8 |
|
|
|
Education |
4 |
2 |
6 |
|
|
|
Taxes |
3 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
|
Other
(vol.) |
4 |
5 |
3 |
|
|
|
Unsure |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Now that the campaign is over,
how satisfied were you with the choice of presidential candidates? Would
you say that you were very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very
satisfied, or not at all satisfied?" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Very |
Fairly |
Not Very |
Not At All |
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
11/5-8/04 |
33 |
33 |
16 |
16 |
2 |
|
11/00 |
24 |
44 |
18 |
9 |
5 |
|
11/96 |
18 |
33 |
24 |
22 |
3 |
|
11/92 |
24 |
37 |
21 |
16 |
2 |
|
11/88 |
26 |
36 |
20 |
17 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Compared to past presidential
elections, would you say there was more discussion of issues in this
campaign or less discussion of issues?" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
More |
Less |
Same (vol.) |
Unsure |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
11/5-8/04 |
47 |
42 |
7 |
4 |
|
|
11/00 |
46 |
36 |
13 |
5 |
|
|
11/96 |
25 |
65 |
6 |
4 |
|
|
11/92 |
59 |
34 |
4 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Compared to past presidential
elections, would you say there was MORE mud slinging or negative
campaigning in this campaign or LESS mud slinging or negative
campaigning in this campaign?" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
More |
Less |
Same (vol.) |
Unsure |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
11/5-8/04 |
72 |
14 |
12 |
2 |
|
|
11/00 |
34 |
46 |
16 |
4 |
|
|
11/96 |
49 |
36 |
12 |
3 |
|
|
11/92 |
68 |
16 |
14 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Would you say the press has
been fair or unfair in the way it has covered
[see below]
election campaign?" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Fair |
Unfair |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
John Kerry's |
65 |
31 |
4 |
|
|
|
George W. Bush's
|
56 |
40 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Generally, are you happy or
unhappy that the Republican Party maintained control of the U.S. Congress?" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Happy |
Unhappy |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
11/5-8/04 |
51 |
44 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Are you happy or unhappy that
George W. Bush was reelected president?" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Happy |
Unhappy |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
11/5-8/04 |
53 |
43 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"In the election, how confident
are you that your vote was accurately counted . . .
?"
Form 1 (N=601) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Very
Confident |
Somewhat
Confident |
Not Too
Confident |
Not At All
Confident |
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
11/5-8/04 |
68 |
24 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"In
the election, how
confident are you that the votes across the country were accurately
counted
. . . ?"
Form 2 (N=608) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Very
Confident |
Somewhat
Confident |
Not Too
Confident |
Not At All
Confident |
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
11/5-8/04 |
48 |
37 |
7 |
7 |
1 |
|
|
CNN/USA
Today/Gallup
Poll. Nov. 3, 2004.
N=621 adults nationwide. MoE ±
4. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Which
of the following best describes your reaction to the outcome of the
presidential election: very pleased, pleased, it doesn't matter to you one
way or the other, upset, or very upset?"
Options rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Very
Pleased |
Pleased |
Doesn't
Matter |
Upset |
Very
Upset |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
11/03/04 |
33 |
18 |
9 |
18 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Which
comes closest to your view of the way George W. Bush won this election: he
won fair and square, he won but only on a technicality, or he stole the
election?"
Options rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Won Fair
and Square |
Won on a
Technicality |
Stole the
Election |
Unsure |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
11/03/04 |
74 |
10 |
13 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Which of the following best describes your feelings as you look ahead to
George W. Bush's second term as president: enthusiastic, optimistic,
pessimistic, or afraid?"
Options rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Enthu-
siastic |
Optimistic |
Pessimistic |
Afraid |
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
11/03/04 |
23 |
33 |
18 |
24 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"In the next four years, do you think George W. Bush will do more to unite
the country or more to divide the country?"
Options rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Unite |
Divide |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
11/03/04 |
57 |
39 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Which
comes closer to your view? Because the election was so close, George W. Bush
should emphasize programs that both parties support. OR, Because he won a
majority of the votes, George W. Bush has a mandate to advance the
Republican Party's agenda."
Options rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Bipartisan
Agenda |
GOP
Agenda |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
11/03/04 |
63 |
30 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Overall, do you think the news media did a good job or a poor job of
covering the election on Election Day?" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Good |
Poor |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
11/03/04 |
78 |
19 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Exit Poll
Los Angeles Times national exit poll. N=5,154 voters
(including 3,357 California voters)
interviewed
-- using self-administered, confidential questionnaires -- as
they exited 136 polling places across the nation on Nov. 2,
2004.
Fieldwork by
Schlesinger Associates and Davis Research. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"In the election for president, for whom did you just
vote . . . ?" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Percentage
of All Voters |
|
Voted for
BUSH |
Voted for
KERRY |
|
|
|
% |
|
% |
% |
|
|
ALL |
100 |
|
51 |
48 |
|
|
Men |
49 |
|
53 |
46 |
|
|
Women |
51 |
|
49 |
50 |
|
|
Married men |
31 |
|
59 |
40 |
|
|
Single men |
16 |
|
40 |
58 |
|
|
Married women |
30 |
|
57 |
42 |
|
|
Single
women |
19 |
|
35 |
64 |
|
|
18-29 years old |
20 |
|
43 |
55 |
|
|
30-44
years old |
32 |
|
52 |
47 |
|
|
45-64
years old |
36 |
|
54 |
45 |
|
|
65 & older |
12 |
|
55 |
45 |
|
|
Whites |
79 |
|
57 |
42 |
|
|
Blacks |
10 |
|
14 |
86 |
|
|
Latinos |
5 |
|
45 |
54 |
|
|
Asians |
3 |
|
34 |
64 |
|
|
Liberals |
32 |
|
19 |
79 |
|
|
Moderates |
29 |
|
45 |
54 |
|
|
Conservatives |
39 |
|
82 |
18 |
|
|
Democrats |
40 |
|
12 |
88 |
|
|
Independents |
19 |
|
48 |
49 |
|
|
Republicans |
39 |
|
94 |
6 |
|
|
City |
36 |
|
43 |
56 |
|
|
Suburb |
32 |
|
52 |
47 |
|
|
Small town |
20 |
|
58 |
41 |
|
|
Rural |
12 |
|
62 |
37 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Which issues, if any, were most important to you in
deciding how you would vote for president today? . . ."
Respondents could make up to two selections from the list
below. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
ALL
Voters |
|
BUSH
Voters |
KERRY
Voters |
|
|
|
% |
|
% |
% |
|
|
Moral/Ethical values |
40 |
|
54 |
24 |
|
|
Jobs/Economy |
33 |
|
18 |
48 |
|
|
Terrorism/Homeland security |
29 |
|
45 |
13 |
|
|
Situation in Iraq |
16 |
|
11 |
21 |
|
|
Education |
15 |
|
12 |
18 |
|
|
Social issues, such as abortion
and gay marriage |
15 |
|
14 |
15 |
|
|
Taxes |
9 |
|
11 |
7 |
|
|
Health care |
9 |
|
5 |
14 |
|
|
Foreign affairs |
5 |
|
3 |
8 |
|
|
Social Security |
5 |
|
3 |
7 |
|
|
Medicare/Prescription drugs |
3 |
|
2 |
4 |
|
|
None of the above |
2 |
|
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
