|
A snapshot of election trends:
Exit poll | Final trial heats | Tracking poll trend lines | Favorability trend
lines
Election polls in depth:
POST-ELECTION
-- THE LONG COUNT
POST-ELECTION --
GRADING THE CAMPAIGN
WHITE HOUSE
2000 -- TRIAL HEATS, ETC.
CONGRESS 2000
EXIT POLL
THE LOS ANGELES TIMES POLL. Based on interviews with 8,132 voters as they exited 140
polling places across the nation on Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2000. (There was an oversample of
Californian voters.) Figures reflect preliminary results. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
%
of all
voters |
|
Voted
for
GORE |
Voted
for
BUSH |
Voted
for
NADER |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
| 100 |
ALL |
49 |
48 |
3 |
|
| 48 |
Men |
43 |
54 |
3 |
|
| 52 |
Women |
55 |
43 |
2 |
|
| 15 |
18
to 29 years old |
54 |
41 |
5 |
|
| 34 |
30
to 44 |
46 |
51 |
3 |
|
| 37 |
45
to 64 |
51 |
47 |
2 |
|
| 14 |
65
& older |
46 |
52 |
2 |
|
| 80 |
White |
43 |
54 |
3 |
|
| 9 |
Black |
90 |
9 |
1 |
|
| 7 |
Latino |
61 |
38 |
1 |
|
| 2 |
Asian |
62 |
37 |
1 |
|
| 10 |
Under
$20,000 in annual family income |
63 |
33 |
4 |
|
| 25 |
$20,000
to $39,999 |
51 |
45 |
4 |
|
| 23 |
$40,000
to $59,999 |
47 |
51 |
2 |
|
| 15 |
$60,000
to $74,999 |
48 |
49 |
3 |
|
| 27 |
$75,000
or more |
46 |
52 |
2 |
|
| 52 |
Protestant |
40 |
58 |
2 |
|
| 28 |
Catholic |
53 |
46 |
1 |
|
| 4 |
Jewish |
77 |
22 |
1 |
|
| 24 |
East |
58 |
37 |
5 |
|
| 25 |
Midwest |
47 |
50 |
3 |
|
| 30 |
South |
41 |
58 |
1 |
|
21 |
West |
52 |
44 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
ALL
Voters |
GORE
Voters |
BUSH
Voters |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
| "What did you like most about your choice for president?..." Up to two responses accepted. |
|
"He
has the experience and intellect to be president" |
33 |
51 |
16 |
|
|
"He
thinks like me on the issues" |
18 |
14 |
22 |
|
|
"He
has strong leadership qualities" |
18 |
15 |
23 |
|
|
"He
shares my values" |
17 |
10 |
24 |
|
|
"He
cares about people like me" |
16 |
20 |
12 |
|
|
"He
has honesty and integrity" |
15 |
6 |
23 |
|
|
"He
understands average Americans’ problems" |
13 |
15 |
9 |
|
|
"An
overall good opinion of my candidate" |
12 |
10 |
15 |
|
|
"He
has a clear vision of the future" |
10 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
"He
is personally likeable" |
5 |
4 |
7 |
|
|
None
of the above |
6 |
7 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
| "Which issues, if any, were most important to you in deciding how you
would vote for president today?..." Up to two responses
accepted. |
|
"Moral/Ethical
values" |
35 |
17 |
55 |
|
|
"Jobs/The
economy" |
26 |
36 |
16 |
|
|
"Education" |
25 |
31 |
20 |
|
|
"Social
Security" |
21 |
25 |
16 |
|
|
"Taxes" |
16 |
9 |
25 |
|
|
"Abortion" |
14 |
12 |
17 |
|
|
"The
environment" |
10 |
14 |
2 |
|
|
"Health
care" |
8 |
11 |
5 |
|
|
"Medicare/Prescription
drugs" |
8 |
10 |
6 |
|
|
"Budget
surplus" |
6 |
6 |
6 |
|
|
"Foreign
affairs" |
5 |
5 |
5 |
|
|
None
of the above |
4 |
3 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
| "Which of these things, if any, had a major influence on your vote
for president today?..." Up to three responses
accepted. |
|
"Gore
will continue the policies of Clinton" |
40 |
50 |
31 |
|
|
"Bush's
record in Texas" |
30 |
26 |
36 |
|
|
"Confidence
in my candidate to deal wisely with international crises" |
26 |
31 |
22 |
|
|
"Supreme
Court appointments" |
23 |
26 |
20 |
|
|
"Candidate’s
position on gun control" |
17 |
16 |
19 |
|
|
"Disapproval
of Clinton’s personal behavior" |
15 |
3 |
30 |
|
|
"Other
candidate is too liberal" |
14 |
3 |
27 |
|
|
"The
broadcast debates" |
11 |
11 |
10 |
|
|
"Other
candidate is too conservative" |
10 |
16 |
3 |
|
|
"Negative
campaigning by the candidates" |
8 |
6 |
8 |
|
|
"Candidate’s
proposal to reduce dependency on foreign oil" |
6 |
5 |
7 |
|
|
None
of the above |
8 |
8 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
|
BUSH
% |
GORE
% |
NADER
% |
BUCH-
ANAN
% |
|
BUSH
minus
GORE |
|
|
|
|
|
| CBS ^ |
11/6 |
|
44 |
45 |
4 |
1 |
|
-
1 |
| CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP #@ |
11/6 |
|
48 |
46 |
4 |
1 |
|
2 |
| CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # |
11/6 |
|
47 |
45 |
4 |
1 |
|
2 |
| IBD/CSM/TIPP ^ # @ |
11/6 |
|
47.9 |
46.0 |
3.7 |
|
|
2 |
| REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # @ |
11/6 |
|
46 |
48 |
5 |
1 |
|
- 2 |
| VOTER.COM ^ # @ |
11/6 |
|
50.0 |
45.0 |
3.5 |
|
|
5 |
| VOTER.COM ^ # |
11/6 |
|
46 |
41 |
4 |
0 |
|
5 |
| ABC # * |
11/5 |
|
48 |
45 |
3 |
1 |
|
3 |
| HARRIS ^ @ |
11/5 |
|
47 |
47 |
5 |
- |
|
0 |
| HOTLINE ^ |
11/5 |
|
45 |
42 |
4 |
1 |
|
3 |
| ICR ^ |
11/5 |
|
46 |
44 |
7 |
2 |
|
2 |
| NBC/WALL ST. JOURNAL |
11/5 |
|
47 |
44 |
3 |
2 |
|
3 |
| PEW @ |
11/5 |
|
49 |
47 |
4 |
- |
|
2 |
| PEW |
11/5 |
|
45 |
43 |
4 |
- |
|
2 |
| WASHINGTON POST * |
11/5 |
|
48 |
45 |
3 |
1 |
|
3 |
| FOX/OPINION DYNAMICS ^ |
11/2 |
|
43 |
43 |
3 |
1 |
|
0 |
| MARIST COLLEGE |
11/2 |
|
49 |
44 |
2 |
1 |
|
5 |
| NEWSWEEK |
11/2 |
|
45 |
43 |
5 |
- |
|
2 |
Surveys of likely
voters. Questions include running mates, except where noted.
Date shown is last day of interviewing.
Respondents who lean to a candidate are included, where available.
IBD/CSM/TIPP = Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP
Poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. |
|
@ Vote
projection, with undecideds allocated.
^ Excludes running mates.
# Tracking poll.
* ABC News and The Washington Post shared data
collection then independently applied their own models to arrive at likely voter
estimates. |
TRIAL HEATS
Based on multi-candidate question. [Details]
ABC NEWS |
TRIAL HEATS
Based on multi-candidate question. [Details]
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP. Includes final
vote projection. |
 |
 |
TRIAL
HEATS Based on multi-candidate
question. [Details]
REUTERS/MSNBC/ZOGBY. Includes final vote
projection. |
TRIAL
HEATS Based on multi-candidate
question. [Details]
TARRANCE/LAKE/VOTER.COM. Includes final
vote projection. |
TRIAL
HEATS Based on multi-candidate
question. [Details]
CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR/INVESTOR'S
BUSINESS DAILY/TIPP. Includes final vote projection. |
BUSH
Favorability Rating [Details]
FOX NEWS/OPINION DYNAMICS, selected
trend |
GORE
Favorability Rating [Details]
FOX NEWS/OPINION DYNAMICS, selected
trend |
 |
 |
BUSH'S DRUNKEN DRIVING ARREST
PEW RESEARCH CENTER POLL. Nov. 3-4, 2000. N=794 registered voters nationwide. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
| "How closely
have you been following news reports that George W. Bush was arrested for drunk driving in
1976? Have you been following this very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not
at all closely?" |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
Very closely |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
Fairly closely |
28 |
|
|
|
|
|
Not too closely |
26 |
|
|
|
|
|
Not at all closely |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
Don't know |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
Asked of those who
are following the story:
"Has this story raised serious doubts in your mind about voting for George W. Bush,
or is this not a serious consideration for you?" |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
Raised serious doubts |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
Not a serious consideration |
88 |
|
|
|
|
|
Don't know |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
Asked of those who
are following the story:
"Some have accused the Democrats of being behind the release of this story because
it’s so close to the election. Has this charge against the Democrats raised serious
doubts in your mind about voting for Al Gore, is this not a serious consideration for you,
or have you not heard this charge?" |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
Raised serious doubts |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
Not a serious consideration |
77 |
|
|
|
|
|
Have not heard this charge |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Don't know |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
| ABC
NEWS POLL. Nov. 3, 2000. N=697 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 4. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
|
Support . . . |
|
|
|
|
ALL |
Gore |
Bush |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
| "Have you
read or heard anything about George W. Bush being arrested for drunken driving in
1976?" |
|
Yes |
91 |
90 |
91 |
|
|
|
No |
9 |
10 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
| "Does knowing
about this arrest raise questions in your mind about whether Bush is qualified to be
president, or not?" |
|
Yes |
15 |
25 |
5 |
|
|
|
No |
84 |
74 |
95 |
|
|
|
No opinion |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
| "As a result
of the reports about Bush's drunken driving arrest in 1976, are you [rotate] more likely to vote for him, less likely to vote for him, or won't it make any
difference in your vote?" |
|
More likely |
5 |
1 |
9 |
|
|
|
Less likely |
7 |
15 |
1 |
|
|
|
Won't make any difference |
87 |
84 |
89 |
|
|
|
No opinion |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
| "Do you think
Bush's drunken driving arrest in 1976 is or is not relevant to the presidential
race?" |
|
Is relevant |
17 |
30 |
5 |
|
|
|
Is not relevant |
82 |
69 |
94 |
|
|
|
No opinion |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
SECOND THOUGHTS . . .
CNN/TIME POLL. Oct.
25-26, 2000. N=2,060 adults nationwide. MoE +/- 2.2. |
| "Now
here is a question that asks you to compare your economic situation today with your
economic situation eight years ago. Do you think you are better off today than you were
eight years ago?" |
|
| NBC NEWS/WALL
STREET JOURNAL POLL. Oct. 13-15, 2000. N=500 registered voters nationwide. |
| "Looking
ahead four years from now, how much do you think it will matter whether George W. Bush or
Al Gore is elected president in November? Do you think it will matter a great deal, quite
a bit, just some, or not very much at all?" |
|
|
