Election 2002

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Election 2002 All data are from nationwide surveys of Americans 18 & older.

Generic House ballot test
Control of Congress
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Generic House Ballot Test Polls listed chronologically.

ABC News Poll. Latest: Oct. 31-Nov. 3, 2002. N=845 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.5. Field work by TNS Intersearch.
						.
"If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for [rotate:] the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your congressional district?" If "Other," "Neither," "Don't know," or "Refused": "Would you lean [rotate:] toward the Democratic candidate or toward the Republican candidate?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other (vol.)	Neither (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%	%
	Among likely voters:					.
	10/31 - 11/3/02	48	48	-	1	2
	10/24-27/02	49	47	1	1	3
	9/23-26/02	47	49	1	2	2
	Among all adults:					.
	9/23-26/02	42	46	2	2	8
	9/3-6/02	49	41	1	2	6
	7/02	45	47	1	1	5
	Among registered voters:					.
	9/23-26/02	44	47	2	3	5
	7/02	46	47	1	1	5

*CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll*. Latest: Oct. 31-Nov. 3, 2002. N=1,061 registered voters nationwide (MoE ą 3), including 715 likely voters (MoE ą 4).
					.
"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: [rotate] the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward [rotate] the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other (vol.)/ Undecided
		%	%	%
	Among likely voters:
	10/31 - 11/3/02	51	45	4
	10/21-22/02	46	49	5
	10/3-6/02	47	48	5
	9/20-22/02	46	50	4
	Among registered voters:
	10/31 - 11/3/02	44	49	7
	10/21-22/02	41	50	9
	10/3-6/02	43	48	9
	9/20-22/02	43	48	9
	9/2-4/02	43	46	11
	8/19-21/02	42	50	8
	7/26-28/02	42	48	10
	6/28-30/02	49	44	7
	6/21-23/02	42	50	8
	5/28-29/02	46	45	9
	4/29 - 5/1/02	44	48	8
	4/5-7/02	43	50	7
	3/02	46	46	8
	2/02	47	43	10
	1/25-27/02	46	44	10
	1/11-14/02	46	43	11
	12/01	48	43	9
	11/01	45	45	10
	6/01	45	49	6

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Latest: Oct. 30-Nov. 2, 2002. N=1,035 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.5.
					.
"If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If no choice: "As of today, do you lean more to the Republican or the Democrat?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%
	ALL	44	46	10
	Men	47	43	10
	Women	42	48	10
	Whites	49	40	11
	Non-whites	12	85	3
	Among registered voters:
	10/2-6/02	44	46	10
	9/02	44	46	10
	6/02	44	46	10
	2/02	46	45	9
	11/01	44	44	12

*CBS News/New York Times* Poll**. Latest: Oct. 27-31, 2002. N=669 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 4.
.
"If the 2002 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Depends (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%
	10/27-31/02	47	40	4	9
	10/3-5/02	43	46	5	6
	Among registered voters:
	9/22-23/02	40	40	8	12
	9/2-5/02	37	41	9	13
	7/13-16/02	36	42	9	13
	7/8-9/02	40	41	7	11
	6/02	38	37	12	13
	5/02	40	40	9	11
	2/02	40	40	11	9
	1/02	37	39	10	14

Zogby America Poll. Latest: Oct. 26-29, 2002. N=1,006 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.2.
.
"In the congressional race in 2002, for which party's candidate do you intend to vote: Democrat or Republican?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Neither/ Other/ Not Sure
		%	%	%
	10/26-29/02	49	51	-
	7/19-21/02	34	35	31
	7/12-15/02	34	34	32
	5/28-30/02	34	34	32
	4/19-22/02 *	30	36	34
	3/25-27/02 *	33	31	36
	3/8-10/02 *	32	33	36
	3/1-3/02 *	29	33	38
	1/29-31/02	32	32	36
	1/21-23/02	29	32	39
	1/2-4/02	31	31	38
	12/17-19/01	32	29	40
	8/28-30/01	25	31	44
	6/24-26/01	28	38	34
	4/23-25/01	27	32	42
	3/27-28/01	28	30	42
	2/27-28/01	25	30	45
.
	* Among registered voters

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Latest: Oct. 24-25, 2002. N=581 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 4.
					.
"If the November election for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for [rotate:] the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of today, do you lean more toward [rotate:] the Republican or the Democrat?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other (vol.)/Not Sure
		%	%	%
	10/24-25/02	46	43	11
	10/10-11/02	43	46	11
	Among registered voters:
	9/26-27/02	40	47	13
	9/12-13/02	43	41	16
	8/28-29/02	40	45	15

*CNN/Time* Poll** conducted by Harris Interactive. Latest: Oct. 23-24, 2002. N=882 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.3.
.
"If the election for Congress were being held today, do you think you would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in your district or for the Republican candidate?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	10/02	43	47	2	8
	7/02	40	46	4	10
	6/02	40	49	3	8
	5/02	44	48	2	6
	4/02	42	45	3	10
	1/02	43	47	2	8
	10/12/01	46	45	2	7
	9/27/01	42	46	2	10

Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Latest: Oct. 22-24, 2002. N=1,001 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.1.
					.
". . . If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district where you live?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	10/22-24/02	44	47	2	7
	9/30 - 10/2/02	44	46	2	9
	9/17-22/02	45	45	2	9
	7/02	44	44	1	12
	6/02	43	45	1	10
	5/02	44	45	1	10
	4/02	42	46	2	11
	2/26 - 3/3/02	44	44	2	10
	1/02	45	45	2	8
	12/01	44	43	2	11
	9/01	43	47	2	8
	6/01	44	46	2	7
	4/01	44	42	2	12

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Latest: Oct.22-23, 2002. N=900 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.
					.
"...If the congressional election were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate in your district or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If undecided: "Well, if you had to vote, which way would you lean?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other/ Not Sure
		%	%	%
	10/22-23/02	41	40	19
	10/8-9/02	42	40	18
	Among registered voters:
	9/02	42	45	13
	8/02	39	36	25
	2/02	40	32	28
	12/01	40	29	31
	3/01	38	36	26
	1/01	33	38	29

*NBC News/Wall Street Journal* Poll** conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). Latest: Oct. 18-21, 2002. N=1,012 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.1.
					.
"In this year's election for U.S. House of Representatives, do you plan to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If "Not sure": "Well, which way do you lean at this time?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Depends (vol.)	Other/ Neither/ Won't Vote (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%	%
	10/18-21/02	39	39	9	3	10
	Among all adults:
	9/3-5/02	37	35	12	5	11
	7/02	34	36	15	5	10
	6/02	33	35	15	3	14
	4/02	33	32	19	4	12
	1/02	34	33	16	3	14

National Public Radio Poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (R) and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Latest: Oct. 14-17, 2002. N=762 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.6.
					.
"And thinking ahead to the next U.S. congressional election in your district in 2002: If the election were held today, for whom would you vote, [rotate:] the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?" If undecided: "Which way do you lean as of today? Do you lean toward the Democratic or Republican candidate?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Not Sure
		%	%	%
	10/14-17/02	41	45	14
	7/23-25/02	40	42	18
	6/18-24/02	43	45	12
	4/28-30/02	40	38	22
	3/19-25/02	44	39	17
	3/4-7/02	35	36	29

Marist College Poll. Oct. 9-10, 2002. N=769 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.5.
					.
"Thinking about the November election for Congress in your district, if the election were held today, would you vote for [rotate:] the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Unsure
		%	%	%
	10/02	44	39	17

Wirthlin Worldwide (R). Oct. 4-7, 2002. N=869 registered voters nationwide.
					.
"If the election for Congress were being held today, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Not Sure
		%	%	%
	10/02	41	43	15

Public Opinion Strategies (R). Latest: Sept. 15-19, 2002. N=800 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.5.
					.
"And thinking ahead to the next U.S. congressional election in your district in November: If the election were held today, for whom would you vote: [rotate] the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate? [If Republican/Democrat:] And would you say you would DEFINITELY be voting for the Republican/Democrat candidate or just PROBABLY voting for the Republican/Democrat candidate? [If undecided:] Which way do you lean as of today? Do you lean toward the Democratic or Republican candidate?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Undecided/ Refused
		%	%	%
	9/15-19/02	42	39	19
	8/26 - 9/1/02	41	38	21
	Among likely voters:
	6/30 - 7/1/02	45	42	13
	5/28 - 6/2/02	42	42	16
	5/7-9/02	42	41	17
	4/15-18/02	43	40	17
	3/19-25/02	43	40	17
	2/27-28/02	40	37	23
	1/14-16/02	41	38	21

Associated Press poll conducted by ICR. Sept. 6-10, 2002. N=758 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.5.
					.
"If the elections for Congress were held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your district? Would you vote for the Democratic Party candidate or the Republican Party candidate?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Neither	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	9/02	40	40	5	15

The Los Angeles Times Poll. Latest: Aug. 22-25, 2002. N=1,163 registered voters nationwide.
						.
"If the election for Congress were being held today, which party would you like to see win in your congressional district: the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- cratic	Neither (vol.)	Other Party (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%	%
	8/02	39	47	4	1	9
	1-2/02	41	47	2	1	9

Democratic National Committee Poll conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group and the Mellman Group. July 24-27, 2002. N=1,004 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.2.
						.
"In this year's election for U.S. Congress, do you plan to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If "Neither" or "Not sure": "If you had to decide today, which way do you tend to lean?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Neither (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	7/02	33	36	2	29

Bloomberg News Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Latest: June 11-16, 2002. N=1,201 adults nationwide. MoE ą 3.
.
"If the 2002 elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other (vol.)	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%	%
	6/02	36	36	4	4	20
	4-5/02	34	38	-	3	24
	1/02	38	39	1	2	20
	12/01	35	39	2	2	23
	11/01	36	40	1	2	22

Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Snell Perry & Associates (D) Battleground Survey. Latest: June 9-11, 2002. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.1.
					.
"Thinking ahead to the 2002 elections for U.S. Congress -- If the election for U.S. Congress were being held today and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for [rotate:] the Republican candidate OR the Democratic candidate in your district?" If undecided: "And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other/ Not Sure
		%	%	%
	6/02	39	44	16
	1/02	41	39	20
	4/01*	35	39	26
					.
	* Among registered voters

League of Conservation Voters Education Fund poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). March 13-19, 2002. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.1.
					.
"Now, thinking about the election this November: If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Republican or the Democratic candidate in your district where you live?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	3/02	36	38	10	15

American Viewpoint (R) National Monitor. March 6-11, 2002. N=800 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.5.
					.
"Thinking ahead to the 2002 elections for a moment, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the [rotate:] Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Not Sure
		%	%	%
	3/02	35	34	32

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Jan. 24-27, 2002. N=1,507 adults nationwide. Results shown are among registered voters.
						.
"Thinking about the U.S. House of Representatives election in November, in the congressional district where you live, if that election were being held today, for whom would you vote: the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?" If "Neither," "Don't know," or "Refused": "Who would you lean toward?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Neither (vol.)	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%	%
	1/02	50	43	2	1	5

EMILY's List poll conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D). Jan. 2-8, 2002. N=1,205 active voters nationwide. MoE ą 2.9.
.
"In the election for U.S. Congress that will be held later this year, do you plan to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If "Not sure" or "Depends": "Well, all other things being equal, do you lean more toward the Democrat or more toward the Republican?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Neither (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	1/02	32	31	3	34

Control of Congress Polls listed chronologically.

Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll. Nov. 1-3, 2002. N=505 likely voters nationwide.
				.
"And if the election for Congress were held today, would you want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of Congress?"
		Repub- licans	Demo- crats	Neither (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	Among likely voters:
	11/1-3/02	47	44	6	3
	10/28-31/02	45	45	8	2
	10/25-31/02	44	45	8	3
	Among registered voters:
	10/28-31/02	44	45	8	3
	10/25-27/02	40	46	9	5
	10/15-17/02	44	44	9	3
	10/1-3/02	43	44	8	5
	9/20-22/02	43	44	9	4
	9/16-19/02	43	44	10	3
	9/3-5/02	41	46	8	5
	8/16-18/02	41	45	9	5
	8/2-4/02	41	46	10	3
	7/18-21/02	44	40	10	6
	7/11-14/02	43	44	9	4
	6/21-23/02	45	39	13	3
	6/7-9/02	44	39	12	5
	5/17-19/02	44	40	12	4
	5/3-6/02	43	40	12	5
	4/19-21/02	44	41	10	5
	4/12-14 & 19-21/02	45	39	11	5
	3/14-17/02	39	44	14	4
	3/1-3/02	42	40	13	4
	2/1-3 - 2/15-17/02	43	41	12	4
	1/18-21 & 2/1-3/02	46	39	11	4
	1/4-6/02	44	43	9	3

*NBC News/Wall Street Journal* Poll** conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). Latest: Oct. 18-21, 2002. N=1,012 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.1.
				.
"What is your preference for the outcome of this November's congressional elections: a Congress controlled by Republicans, or a Congress controlled by Democrats?"
		Repub- licans	Demo- crats	Not Sure
		%	%	%
	10/18-21/02	43	42	15
	Among all adults:
	9/3-5/02	42	42	16
	7/02	43	41	16
	6/02	42	41	17
	1/02	44	40	16
	12/01	42	40	18
				.
	Previous question wording: ". . . the November 2002 congressional elections . . . ."

Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor poll conducted by TIPP, the polling arm of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. Latest: Oct. 7-13, 2002. N=912 adults nationwide.
					.
"Which of the following is your preference for the outcome of the November 2002 congressional elections: [rotate] a Congress controlled by Republicans OR a Congress controlled by Democrats?"
		Repub- licans	Demo- crats	Not Sure
		%	%	%
	Among likely voters:
	10/02	40	47	12
	Among all adults:
	8/02	41	43	16

*CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll*. Latest: July 29-31, 2002. N=1,003 adults nationwide. MoE ą 3.
						.
"Do you think the country would be better off if the Republicans controlled Congress, or if the Democrats controlled Congress?"
		Repub- licans	Demo- crats	Neither (vol.)	Same (vol.)	No Opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
	7/29-31/02	38	39	9	5	9
	7/5-8/02	40	39	11	3	7
	1/02	44	43	3	3	7
	10/01	38	37	11	7	7
	8/01	34	43	10	6	7
	4/01	41	43	6	3	7
	1/01	39	41	7	5	8
	7/99	37	42	12	2	7
	6/99	41	41	11	2	5
	5/99	36	37	14	4	9
	12/98	30	41	13	5	11
	9/98	35	41	11	3	10

Ipsos-Reid Express. Nov 30-Dec. 2, 2001. N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE ą 3.1.
				.
"And if the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of Congress?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- cratic	Not Sure
		%	%	%
	11/30 - 12/2/01	48	39	13

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