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     Election 2004: White House
         
         
PollingReport.com National 2-Way Trial Heat Summary
  This table is based on trial heat questions matching the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates only (excluding Nader, Badnarik, etc.).
See also:
  ► Multicandidate trial heat summary bar chart.
   ► Tracking poll trendlines.
  ► Complete trial heat trends, with question wordings and methodology info.
   ► STATE POLLS are in our subscriber area.
         
         
BUSH vs. KERRY: 2-way trial heats, among likely voters; with leaners, where available.
(See also registered voters.)
 
  Survey BUSH KERRY Margin Includes
Running-
  End Date % % Bush Kerry  mates?
 
GWU Battleground 11/1 50 46 4   N
 
TIPP 11/1 47 44 3   N
 
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/31 46 48   2 N
 
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/31 49 47 2   Y
 
TIPP 10/31 45 44 1   N
 
GWU Battleground 10/31 49 45 4   N
 
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/30 46 47   1 N
 
American Research Group 10/30 48 49   1 Y
 
TIPP 10/30 47 42 5   N
 
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/29 47 45 2   N
 
Newsweek 10/29 51 45 6   Y
 
TIPP 10/29 45 44 1   N
 
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/28 50 45 5   N
 
GWU Battleground 10/28 50 45 5   N
 
TIPP 10/28 45 45     N
 
TIPP 10/27 46 43 3   N
 
TIPP 10/26 47 43 4   N
 
TIPP 10/25 47 42 5   N
 
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/24 52 46 6   Y
 
Los Angeles Times 10/24 49 48 1   Y
 
TIPP 10/24 48 41 7   N
 
TIPP 10/23 47 43 4   N
 
Newsweek 10/22 48 47 1   Y
 
TIPP 10/22 47 44 3   N
 
GWU Battleground 10/21 49 45 4   N
 
TIPP 10/21 45 45     N
 
TIPP 10/20 45 44 1   N
 
TIPP 10/19 45 45     N
 
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/18 48 43 5   N
 
TIPP 10/18 45 45     N
 
CBS/NYT 10/17 47 46 1   Y
 
TIPP 10/17 47 44 3   N
 
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/16 52 44 8   Y
 
TIPP 10/16 47 43 4   N
 
Newsweek 10/15 50 45 5   Y
 
Time 10/15 48 48     Y
 
TIPP 10/15 47 44 3   N
 
TIPP 10/14 47 43 4   N
 
GWU Battleground 10/14 49 46 3   N
 
TIPP 10/13 46 42 4   N
 
Scripps Center, Ohio U. 10/13 48 47 1   N
 
TIPP 10/12 46 43 3   N
 
CBS 10/11 47 46 1   Y
 
ICR 10/11 49 46 3   Y
 
TIPP 10/11 45 44 1   N
 
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/10 48 50   2 Y
 
Time 10/7 47 46 1   Y
 
GWU Battleground 10/7 49 46 3   N
 
ICR 10/5 51 46 5   Y
 
American Research Group 10/4 46 47   1 N
 
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/4 48 45 3   N
 
CBS/NYT 10/3 48 47 1   Y
 
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/3 49 49     Y
 
Zogby 10/3 46 45 1   Y
 
GWU Battleground 9/30 52 44 8   N
 
Los Angeles Times 9/28 51 46 5   Y
 
ICR 9/28 51 43 8   Y
 
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/27 45 46   1 N
 
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/26 52 44 8   Y
 
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 9/22 45 43 2   N
 
Democracy Corps (D) 9/21 49 49     N
 
Zogby 9/19 47 44 3   Y
 
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/18 46 43 3   N
 
GWU Battleground 9/16 49 45 4   N
 
Gallup 9/15 55 42 13   Y
 
Democracy Corps (D) 9/14 49 48 1   N
 
New Democrat Network (D) 9/12 49 45 4    
 
ICR 9/12 52 44 8   Y
 
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/12 47 47     N
 
Zogby 9/9 47 45 2   Y
 
Time 9/9 54 42 12   Y
 
Democracy Corps (D) 9/9 50 47 3   N
 
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 9/8 47 45 2   N
 
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/5 52 45 7   Y
 
ICR 9/5 48 47 1   Y
 
Time 9/2 53 43 10   Y
 
Zogby 9/2 46 44 2   Y
 
American Research Group 9/1 48 47 1   N
 
ABC/Washington Post 8/29 49 49     n/a
 
ICR 8/29 46 50   4 Y
 
Time 8/26 48 48     Y
 
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 8/25 44 45   1 N
 
Gallup 8/25 50 47 3   Y
 
NPR 8/24 45 50   5 N
 
GWU Battleground 8/17 47 49   2 N
 
Zogby 8/14 43 50   7 Y
 
Gallup 8/11 50 47 3   Y
 
ICR 8/8 48 48     Y
 
Time 8/5 44 51   7 Y
 
Democracy Corps (D) 8/5 45 52   7 N
 
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 8/4 43 48   5 N
 
ABC/Washington Post 8/1 48 49   1 n/a
 
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 8/1 51 47 4   Y
         
         
         
BUSH vs. KERRY: 2-way trial heats, among registered voters; with leaners, where available.
(See also likely voters.)
 
  Survey BUSH KERRY Margin Includes
Running-
  End Date % % Bush Kerry  mates?
 
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/31 45 48   3 N
 
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/31 47 48   1 Y
 
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/30 45 47   2 N
 
American Research Group 10/30 48 49   1 Y
 
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/29 46 46     N
 
Newsweek 10/29 48 45 3   Y
 
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/28 47 47     N
 
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/24 49 48 1   Y
 
Los Angeles Times 10/24 47 48   1 Y
 
Newsweek 10/22 47 47     Y
 
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/16 50 46 4   Y
 
Newsweek 10/15 48 47 1   Y
 
Time 10/15 46 46     Y
 
Scripps Center, Ohio U. 10/13 45 50   5 N
 
ICR 10/11 48 46 2   Y
 
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/10 48 48     Y
 
Time 10/7 43 44   1 Y
 
ICR 10/5 50 46 4   Y
 
American Research Group 10/4 45 48   3 N
 
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/3 49 48 1   Y
 
Newsweek 10/2 46 49   3 Y
 
Los Angeles Times 9/28 49 45 4   Y
 
ICR 9/28 50 43 7   Y
 
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/27 44 44     N
 
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/26 54 41 13   Y
 
Time 9/23 48 44 4   Y
 
CBS 9/22 49 41 8   Y
 
NBC/Wall Street Journal 9/19 49 46 3   Y
 
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/18 44 43 1   N
 
CBS 9/16 50 42 8   Y
 
Gallup 9/15 52 44 8   Y
 
ICR 9/12 49 45 4   Y
 
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/12 44 46   2 N
 
Newsweek 9/10 50 45 5   Y
 
Time [excludes leaners] 9/9 51 39 12   Y
 
CBS 9/8 50 42 8   Y
 
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/5 49 48 1   Y
 
ICR 9/5 46 47   1 Y
 
Newsweek 9/3 54 43 11   Y
 
Time 9/2 50 42 8   Y
 
American Research Group 9/1 46 48   2 N
 
ABC/Washington Post 8/29 48 49   1 n/a
 
ICR 8/29 44 51   7 Y
 
Gallup 8/25 47 48   1 Y
 
Los Angeles Times 8/24 49 46 3   Y
 
IBD/CSM/TIPP 8/23 44 44     N
 
CBS 8/18 44 47   3 Y
 
Gallup 8/11 48 47 1   Y
 
ICR 8/8 45 50   5 Y
 
Time 8/5 43 51   8 Y
 
IBD/CSM/TIPP 8/5 43 49   6 N
 
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 8/4 43 46   3 N
 
ABC/Washington Post 8/1 45 52   7 n/a
 
American Research Group 8/1 46 49   3 N
 
CBS 8/1 43 49   6 Y
CBS 8/1 44 51   7 N
 
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 8/1 48 48     Y
 

 

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