White House
2004: Democratic Nomination
All data are from nationwide surveys
of Americans 18 & older. |
See also:
Political figures |
Polls listed chronologically. |
|
CBS News Poll.
Feb. 24-27, 2004.
N=546 likely Democratic primary voters nationwide. MoE ±
4. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
"Who would you like to see the Democratic
Party nominate as its
presidential candidate in 2004:
[see below],
or someone else?"
Names rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
2/24-27/04 |
2/12-15/04 |
|
|
. |
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
. |
|
Kerry |
57 |
53 |
|
|
. |
|
Edwards |
18 |
7 |
|
|
. |
|
Sharpton |
4 |
4 |
|
|
. |
|
Kucinich |
1 |
1 |
|
|
. |
|
Other (vol.) |
8 |
12 |
|
|
. |
|
Don't know |
12 |
15 |
|
|
. |
|
Dean |
n/a |
8 |
|
|
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
1/12-15/04 |
12/21-22/03 |
12/14-16/03 |
11/10-13/03 |
. |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
. |
|
Dean |
24 |
16 |
23 |
14 |
. |
|
Clark |
12 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
. |
|
Gephardt |
11 |
9 |
6 |
12 |
. |
|
Kerry |
7 |
4 |
4 |
7 |
. |
|
Edwards |
5 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
. |
|
Lieberman |
5 |
6 |
10 |
9 |
. |
|
Braun |
4 |
6 |
1 |
4 |
. |
|
Sharpton |
3 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
. |
|
Kucinich |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
. |
|
Other (vol.) |
13 |
16 |
10 |
15 |
. |
|
Don't know |
15 |
24 |
28 |
23 |
. |
|
Newsweek
Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates.
Feb. 19-20, 2004.
N=391 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide. MoE ±
6. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Which of the following four
Democrats would you MOST like to see nominated as the Democratic Party's
presidential candidate this year?"
Names rotated |
|
|
% |
|
|
. |
|
|
John Kerry |
54 |
|
|
. |
|
|
John Edwards |
19 |
|
|
. |
|
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
|
|
. |
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
|
|
. |
|
|
Howard Dean (vol.) |
3 |
|
|
. |
|
|
None (vol.) |
2 |
|
|
. |
|
|
Don't know |
16 |
|
|
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"If the Democratic presidential
race comes down to a choice between John Kerry and John Edwards, which would
you rather see as the party's candidate this fall?"
Names rotated |
|
|
% |
|
|
. |
|
|
John Kerry |
63 |
|
|
. |
|
|
John Edwards |
26 |
|
|
. |
|
|
Neither (vol.) |
2 |
|
|
. |
|
|
Don't know |
9 |
|
|
. |
|
|
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll.
Feb. 18-19, 2004.
N=345 registered
Democrats nationwide. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"If a 2004 Democratic primary
for president were held today, which ONE of the following candidates would
you most likely vote for?" If
"Not sure," ask: "Well,
to whom do you lean at this time?"
Names rotated |
|
|
2/18-19 |
2/4-5 |
1/21-22 |
1/7-8 |
11/18-19 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
John Kerry |
58 |
54 |
29 |
7 |
8 |
|
John Edwards |
21 |
12 |
13 |
4 |
3 |
|
Someone else/Other (vol.) |
2 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
|
Wouldn't vote (vol.)/Not sure |
19 |
12 |
17 |
27 |
25 |
|
Wesley Clark |
n/a |
8 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
|
Howard Dean |
n/a |
7 |
17 |
20 |
18 |
|
Al Sharpton |
n/a |
5 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
n/a |
- |
1 |
3 |
2 |
|
Joe Lieberman |
n/a |
n/a |
5 |
8 |
10 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
7 |
9 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
4 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
10/14-15 |
9/23-24 |
9/9-10 |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
John Kerry |
10 |
10 |
17 |
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
12 |
13 |
14 |
|
|
|
John Edwards |
3 |
5 |
4 |
|
|
|
Wesley Clark |
13 |
20 |
n/a |
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
11 |
9 |
16 |
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
Someone else/Other (vol.) |
- |
5 |
7 |
|
|
|
Wouldn't vote (vol.)/Not sure |
35 |
21 |
26 |
|
|
|
Dick Gephardt |
9 |
9 |
6 |
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
3 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
n/a |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
8/12-13 |
6/17-18 |
5/6-7 |
2/25-26 |
1/14-15 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Howard Dean |
11 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
|
Joe Lieberman |
18 |
15 |
19 |
15 |
29 |
|
John Kerry |
13 |
15 |
12 |
10 |
13 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
12 |
7 |
14 |
16 |
15 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
4 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
n/a |
|
John Edwards |
3 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
n/a |
|
Al Sharpton |
5 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
|
Bob Graham |
2 |
5 |
4 |
n/a |
n/a |
|
Someone else/Other (vol.) |
5 |
8 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
|
Wouldn't vote (vol.)/Not sure |
25 |
34 |
30 |
33 |
20 |
|
CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Poll. Feb. 16-17, 2004.
N=426
Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide
who are registered to vote. MoE
± 5. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may
be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election.
After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you
would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president
in the year 2004. . . ."
Names rotated
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
2/16-17 |
|
|
. |
|
|
|
% |
|
|
. |
|
|
John Kerry |
65 |
|
|
. |
|
|
John Edwards |
19 |
|
|
. |
|
|
Howard Dean |
8 |
|
|
. |
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
|
|
. |
|
|
Al Sharpton |
- |
|
|
. |
|
|
Other/None/No opinion |
6 |
|
|
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
2/6-8 |
1/29 - 2/1 |
1/9-11 |
1/2-5 |
12/15-16 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
John Kerry |
52 |
49 |
9 |
11 |
7 |
|
Howard Dean |
14 |
14 |
26 |
24 |
27 |
|
John Edwards |
13 |
13 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
|
Wesley Clark |
10 |
9 |
20 |
20 |
12 |
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
Other/None/No opinion |
6 |
5 |
14 |
15 |
18 |
|
Joe Lieberman |
n/a |
5 |
9 |
10 |
12 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
n/a |
n/a |
7 |
9 |
7 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
n/a |
n/a |
4 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
12/11-14 |
12/5-7 |
11/14-16 |
11/10-12 |
10/24-26 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Howard Dean |
31 |
25 |
17 |
17 |
16 |
|
Wesley Clark |
10 |
17 |
17 |
14 |
15 |
|
Joe Lieberman |
13 |
10 |
13 |
15 |
12 |
|
John Kerry |
10 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
8 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
|
John Edwards |
4 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
6 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
3 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
|
Al Sharpton |
5 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
|
Other/None/No opinion |
15 |
10 |
13 |
15 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
10/10-12 |
10/6-8 |
9/19-21 |
9/8-10 |
8/25-26 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Howard Dean |
13 |
16 |
13 |
14 |
12 |
|
Wesley Clark |
18 |
21 |
22 |
10 |
2 |
|
Joe Lieberman |
13 |
13 |
10 |
13 |
23 |
|
John Kerry |
11 |
13 |
11 |
12 |
10 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
10 |
8 |
11 |
16 |
13 |
|
John Edwards |
6 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
5 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
Al Sharpton |
6 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
Other/None/No opinion |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
21 |
|
Bob Graham |
n/a |
n/a |
4 |
5 |
4 |
|
University
of Connecticut Poll. Feb.
12-16, 2004. N=474 registered voters
nationwide who are Democrats or lean Democratic. MoE ±
4.5. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
"Three
main candidates for the Democratic presidential
nomination are still in the race. Who would you like to see get the
nomination for president -- would you say
[see below]?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
64 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other (vol.) |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Don't know |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
Time/CNN
Poll conducted by Harris Interactive.
Feb. 5-6, 2004.
N=377 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide. MoE ±
5. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Thinking ahead to the 2004
presidential election, if you were asked to vote for a Democratic
presidential nominee for president today, which of the following Democrats
would you vote for? . . ." |
|
|
2/5-6/04 |
1/14-15/04 |
12/30/03
&
1/1/04 |
11/18-19/03 |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
John Kerry |
43 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
|
|
John Edwards |
18 |
9 |
5 |
5 |
|
|
Wesley Clark |
11 |
14 |
8 |
12 |
|
|
Howard Dean |
8 |
19 |
22 |
14 |
|
|
Al Sharpton |
6 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
|
|
Dennis
Kucinich |
5 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
|
|
Other |
1 |
2 |
3 |
9 |
|
|
Not sure |
8 |
17 |
23 |
23 |
|
|
Joseph Lieberman |
n/a |
9 |
9 |
11 |
|
|
Dick Gephardt |
n/a |
8 |
7 |
6 |
|
|
Carol
Moseley Braun |
n/a |
5 |
2 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
9/3-4/03 |
7/16-17/03 |
5/21-22/03 |
2/19-20/03 |
1/15-16/03 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
John Kerry |
16 |
14 |
14 |
8 |
11 |
|
John Edwards |
7 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
12 |
|
Howard Dean |
11 |
10 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
|
Al Sharpton |
5 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
2 |
|
Dennis
Kucinich |
3 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
n/a |
|
Other |
9 |
3 |
1 |
7 |
11 |
|
Not sure |
21 |
23 |
30 |
30 |
27 |
|
Joseph Lieberman |
13 |
16 |
13 |
16 |
21 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
7 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
10 |
|
Carol
Moseley Braun |
4 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
n/a |
|
Bob Graham |
4 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
|
Newsweek
Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates.
Feb. 5-6, 2004.
N=383 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide. MoE ±
5. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Now I'm going to name six Democrats in the race
for president. After I read you their names, tell
me which ONE you would most like to see nominated
as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate this
year.
Here are the choices . . . ."
Names rotated |
|
|
2/5-6 |
1/29-30 |
1/22-23 |
1/8-9 |
12/18-19 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
John Kerry |
48 |
45 |
30 |
11 |
6 |
|
Howard Dean |
13 |
14 |
12 |
24 |
26 |
|
John Edwards |
10 |
11 |
13 |
3 |
5 |
|
Wesley Clark |
9 |
5 |
12 |
12 |
15 |
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
2 |
6 |
5 |
7 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
|
Other (vol.) |
0 |
- |
- |
1 |
2 |
|
None (vol.) |
1 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
|
Don't know |
14 |
15 |
14 |
15 |
20 |
|
Joe Lieberman |
n/a |
5 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
12 |
5 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
4 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
12/11-12 |
11/6-7 |
10/30-31 |
10/23-24 |
10/9-10 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
John Kerry |
5 |
7 |
11 |
8 |
11 |
|
Howard Dean |
24 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
10 |
|
John Edwards |
5 |
6 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
|
Wesley Clark |
12 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
15 |
|
Al Sharpton |
5 |
4 |
8 |
8 |
5 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
Other (vol.) |
3 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
|
None (vol.) |
5 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
|
Don't know |
14 |
21 |
20 |
22 |
20 |
|
Joe Lieberman |
12 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
13 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
10 |
9 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
3 |
7 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
9/25-26 |
9/18-19 |
7/03 |
1/03 |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
John Kerry |
10 |
12 |
10 |
13 |
|
|
Howard Dean |
12 |
12 |
12 |
4 |
|
|
John Edwards |
6 |
7 |
6 |
14 |
|
|
Wesley Clark |
16 |
14 |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
2 |
6 |
6 |
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
2 |
2 |
n/a |
|
|
Other (vol.) |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
None (vol.) |
5 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
|
|
Don't know |
20 |
19 |
23 |
13 |
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
9 |
8 |
13 |
22 |
|
|
Dick Gephardt |
10 |
10 |
14 |
13 |
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
2 |
6 |
3 |
n/a |
|
|
Bob Graham |
2 |
4 |
7 |
5 |
|
|
Gary Hart |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
5 |
|
|
Quinnipiac University Poll.
Jan. 28-31, 2004.
N=420 Democratic voters nationwide. MoE
± 4.8. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Now I'm going to
name seven Democrats running for president
this year.
After I read all seven names, tell me which one you would most like to
see the
Democrats nominate for president this year. Here are the choices
. . . ." |
|
|
1/28-31 |
1/21-25 |
12/4-8 |
10/23-27 |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
John Kerry |
42 |
30 |
8 |
10 |
|
|
Howard Dean |
11 |
17 |
22 |
13 |
|
|
John Edwards |
10 |
14 |
5 |
8 |
|
|
Wesley Clark |
10 |
14 |
12 |
17 |
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
6 |
8 |
13 |
13 |
|
|
Al Sharpton |
5 |
4 |
8 |
5 |
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
Don't know |
14 |
12 |
18 |
17 |
|
|
Dick
Gephardt |
n/a |
n/a |
9 |
12 |
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
n/a |
n/a |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
9/11-15 |
7/17-22 |
6/4-9 |
. |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
. |
|
|
John Kerry |
13 |
13 |
15 |
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
14 |
10 |
5 |
|
|
|
John Edwards |
7 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
14 |
21 |
22 |
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
6 |
5 |
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
Don't know |
21 |
21 |
21 |
|
|
|
Dick
Gephardt |
13 |
16 |
17 |
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
7 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
4 |
3 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"If
you had to choose, would you rather see the Democrats nominate
Howard Dean or John Kerry for
president
this year?" |
|
|
Kerry |
Dean |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
1/28-31/04 |
64 |
23 |
13 |
|
|
|
NBC News/Wall
Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and
Robert Teeter (R). Jan. 10-12, 2004.
Asked of
Democrats, and non-Democrats who said they would vote in a Democratic
presidential primary (from a total sample of 1,002 adults nationwide). |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Let me mention
some people who might seek the Democratic nomination for president in
2004. If the next Democratic primary for president were being held today,
for which one of the following candidates would you vote: [see below]?" If "Not sure," ask: "Well,
which way do you lean?" |
|
|
1/10-12 |
12/14 |
12/13 |
11/8-10 |
9/03 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Howard Dean |
24 |
25 |
29 |
15 |
17 |
|
Wesley Clark |
19 |
11 |
10 |
17 |
16 |
|
Joe Lieberman |
12 |
9 |
7 |
11 |
16 |
|
Richard Gephardt |
11 |
11 |
12 |
12 |
8 |
|
John Kerry |
7 |
5 |
6 |
11 |
11 |
|
John Edwards |
5 |
3 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
|
Al Sharpton |
5 |
2 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
3 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
None (vol.) |
3 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
|
Other (vol.) |
1 |
1 |
- |
1 |
1 |
|
Not sure |
9 |
21 |
16 |
12 |
14 |
|
Bob Graham |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
7/03 |
5/03 |
4/03 |
1/03 |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Howard Dean |
12 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
11 |
16 |
14 |
17 |
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
25 |
21 |
19 |
25 |
|
|
John Kerry |
14 |
17 |
13 |
14 |
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
1 |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
John Edwards |
4 |
5 |
4 |
7 |
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
5 |
4 |
4 |
n/a |
|
|
Al Sharpton |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
None (vol.) |
7 |
6 |
14 |
5 |
|
|
Other (vol.) |
- |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Not sure |
14 |
21 |
23 |
20 |
|
|
Bob Graham |
4 |
4 |
3 |
6 |
|
|
Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by
Princeton Survey Research Associates.
Jan. 6-11, 2004.
N=415 likely
Democratic
primary/caucus
voters nationwide. MoE ± 5: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
"I am going to read you
the names of some possible candidates for the Democratic nomination for
president in 2004. After I read all the names, please tell me which one you
would most like to see nominated as the Democratic Party's
candidate for president. . . ."
Names rotated. If "None"
or "Don’t know": "Well as of
today, to whom do you most lean?"
Nov.-Dec. 2003
wording: "Which one of the following
Democratic candidates would be your first choice for president: [see below]?"
If "Don’t know": "Just as of today, would
you say you LEAN toward [see below]?" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
1/6-11/04 |
12/19/03-
1/4/04 |
11/18-
12/1/03 |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
26 |
27 |
15 |
|
|
|
Wesley Clark |
14 |
10 |
15 |
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
13 |
13 |
12 |
|
|
|
Richard
Gephardt |
9 |
10 |
12 |
|
|
|
John Kerry |
8 |
7 |
6 |
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
5 |
5 |
5 |
|
|
|
John Edwards |
4 |
6 |
5 |
|
|
|
Carol Moseley
Braun |
3 |
3 |
4 |
|
|
|
Dennis
Kucinich |
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
Other (vol.) |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
Don't know/No
answer |
16 |
16 |
23 |
|
|
|
Associated Press poll conducted by Ipsos-Public
Affairs. Jan. 5-7,
2004. N=241 likely Democratic presidential primary/caucus
voters nationwide. MoE ± 6.4. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"It is early, but if you had to
choose today, which ONE of the following nine candidates would you be most
likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president?
. . ." |
|
|
1/5-7/04 |
11/18-20 &
12/1-3/03 |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
30 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
Wesley Clark |
17 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
12 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Richard
Gephardt |
11 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
6 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
5 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
2 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
- |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Other/None/Not
sure |
15 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
Time/CNN
Poll conducted by Harris Interactive.
Dec. 30, 2003 & Jan. 1, 2004.
N=399 registered Democrats and independents who lean
Democratic nationwide. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"After the first few primaries in previous
elections, there were only a few candidates remaining in the race. Suppose
this happens in 2004 and there are only two candidates left in the race for
the Democratic nomination. If you had to choose, would you vote for Howard
Dean or [see
below]?" |
|
|
Dean |
Clark |
Unsure |
. |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
. |
|
|
12/03 - 1/04 |
46 |
32 |
22 |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Dean |
Lieberman |
Unsure |
. |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
. |
|
|
12/03 - 1/04 |
50 |
32 |
18 |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Dean |
Edwards |
Unsure |
. |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
. |
|
|
12/03 - 1/04 |
53 |
24 |
23 |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Dean |
Gephardt |
Unsure |
. |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
. |
|
|
12/03 - 1/04 |
53 |
28 |
19 |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Dean |
Kerry |
Unsure |
. |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
. |
|
|
12/03 - 1/04 |
51 |
29 |
20 |
. |
|
|
ABC News/Washington Post Poll.
Dec. 18-21, 2003.
Registered voters nationwide who are Democrats
or Democratic-leaning independents (from a total sample of 1,001 adults). Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
"If
the 2004 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held
today, and the candidates were
[see below],
for whom would you vote?"
Names rotated |
|
|
|
12/18-21 |
12/10-14 |
10/26-29 |
10/9-13 |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Howard Dean |
31 |
20 |
17 |
17 |
|
Richard Gephardt |
9 |
6 |
14 |
14 |
|
Joseph Lieberman |
8 |
12 |
13 |
10 |
|
John Kerry |
8 |
7 |
8 |
11 |
|
Wesley Clark |
7 |
7 |
14 |
14 |
|
John Edwards |
5 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
7 |
7 |
3 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
4 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
Other (vol.) |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
|
None (vol.) |
5 |
12 |
5 |
9 |
|
Wouldn't vote (vol.) |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
No opinion |
14 |
20 |
10 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9/10-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
15 |
|
|
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
14 |
|
|
|
|
Joseph Lieberman |
21 |
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
14 |
|
|
|
|
Wesley Clark |
6 |
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
|
|
|
|
None (vol.) |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Wouldn't vote (vol.) |
2 |
|
|
|
|
No opinion |
8 |
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
3 |
|
|
|
|
The
Harris Poll. Dec. 10-16, 2003. N=393 Democrats
and Democratic-leaning independents nationwide. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
"Which
of the following Democratic presidential candidates have you heard of?
. . . And which one of these would
you prefer to be the Democratic candidate?" |
|
|
Name ID |
Preference |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
76 |
21 |
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
85 |
10 |
|
|
|
Wesley Clark |
52 |
7 |
|
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
67 |
7 |
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
43 |
6 |
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
70 |
6 |
|
|
|
John Kerry |
65 |
4 |
|
|
|
John Edwards |
58 |
3 |
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
27 |
1 |
|
|
|
Not sure |
n/a |
34 |
|
|
|
Newsweek
Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates.
Dec. 11-12, 2003. N=357 registered Democrats and
independents who lean Democratic nationwide. MoE ±
6. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"As you may know,
this week Al Gore endorsed Howard Dean for president. Does Gore's
endorsement make you more likely or less likely to support Dean in the
Democratic race for president -- or does Gore's
endorsement not make much difference?" |
|
|
More
Likely |
Less
Likely |
Not
Much
Differ-
ence |
Don't
Know |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
12/03 |
35 |
9 |
48 |
8 |
|
|
Quinnipiac University Poll.
Dec. 4-8, 2003.
N=384 Democratic voters nationwide. MoE
± 5. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Suppose New York
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for
president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate
for president in 2004? . . ." |
|
|
12/4-8 |
10/23-27 |
9/11-15 |
7/17-22 |
6/4-9 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Hillary
Rodham Clinton |
43 |
43 |
45 |
48 |
40 |
|
Howard Dean |
14 |
7 |
9 |
4 |
3 |
|
Wesley Clark |
9 |
10 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
Joe Lieberman |
7 |
8 |
6 |
11 |
16 |
|
Dick
Gephardt |
5 |
8 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
|
John Kerry |
5 |
7 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
|
John Edwards |
3 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
|
Al Sharpton |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
Don't know |
10 |
10 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
|
Bob Graham |
n/a |
n/a |
2 |
3 |
4 |
|
Associated Press poll conducted by Ipsos-Public
Affairs. Nov. 18-20 & Dec.
1-3,
2003. N=539 likely Democratic presidential primary/caucus
voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.3. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"It is early, but if you had to
choose today, which ONE of the following nine candidates would you be most
likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president?
. . ." |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
Wesley Clark |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
Richard
Gephardt |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other/None/Not
sure |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
Asked of those who made a
choice and did not volunteer Hillary Rodham Clinton: "If
New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decided to seek the Democratic
nomination for president, would you continue to
support [response from
question above] or would you prefer to support Hillary Rodham
Clinton?"
Asked of those who did not have
an initial preference:
"If
New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decided to seek the Democratic
nomination for president, would she be your first choice for the nomination?"
Recalculated preference: |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
Hillary
Rodham Clinton |
41 |
|
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Wesley Clark |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Richard
Gephardt |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other/None/Not
sure |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
Ipsos-Reid/Cook
Political Report Poll. Nov. 4-6 & 18-20,
2003. N=527 likely Democratic presidential primary/caucus
voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.4. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"It is early, but if you had to
choose today, which ONE of the following nine candidates would you be most
likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president?
. . ." |
|
|
11/03 |
9/16-18 |
9/2-4 |
7/22-24 |
5/03 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Howard Dean |
20 |
15 |
14 |
12 |
7 |
|
Wesley Clark |
16 |
13 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
Richard
Gephardt |
14 |
9 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
|
Joe Lieberman |
12 |
9 |
13 |
14 |
18 |
|
John Kerry |
10 |
12 |
20 |
20 |
15 |
|
John Edwards |
5 |
9 |
5 |
6 |
9 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
4 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
Al Sharpton |
3 |
7 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
3 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
Hillary
Rodham Clinton (vol.) |
1 |
- |
2 |
2 |
3 |
|
Other/None/Not
sure |
12 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
18 |
|
Bob Graham |
n/a |
4 |
3 |
3 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
4/03 |
2/03 |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
6 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Wesley Clark |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
|
|
Richard
Gephardt |
14 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
14 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
19 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
4 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Hillary
Rodham Clinton (vol.) |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Other/None/Not
sure |
22 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
6 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
Asked of those who made a
choice and did not volunteer Hillary Rodham Clinton: "If
New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decided to seek the Democratic
nomination for president, would you continue to
support [response from
question above] or would you prefer to support Hillary Rodham
Clinton?"
Asked of those who did not have
an initial preference:
"If
New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decided to seek the Democratic
nomination for president, would she be your first choice for the nomination?"
Recalculated preference: |
|
|
11/03 |
9/16-18 |
9/2-4 |
7/22-24 |
5/03 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Hillary
Rodham Clinton |
41 |
38 |
42 |
40 |
38 |
|
Howard Dean |
11 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
4 |
|
Wesley Clark |
11 |
10 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
Richard
Gephardt |
7 |
5 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
|
John Kerry |
6 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
10 |
|
Joe Lieberman |
6 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
10 |
|
John Edwards |
3 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
3 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
Al Sharpton |
1 |
2 |
2 |
- |
2 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
- |
- |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
Other/None/Not
sure |
11 |
18 |
18 |
21 |
16 |
|
Bob Graham |
n/a |
1 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
4/03 |
2/03 |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
Hillary
Rodham Clinton |
41 |
40 |
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Wesley Clark |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
|
|
Richard
Gephardt |
7 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
13 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
6 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
6 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Other/None/Not
sure |
17 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
4 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
The Los
Angeles Times Poll. Nov. 15-18, 2003.
N=662 Democratic primary and caucus voters nationwide.
MoE
± 4 (total sample). |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"If the presidential primary or caucus were being held in
your state today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would
you vote?"
Names rotated |
|
|
ALL |
Men |
Women |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
12 |
13 |
12 |
|
|
|
Wesley Clark |
11 |
14 |
9 |
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
11 |
14 |
9 |
|
|
|
Dick
Gephardt |
10 |
4 |
14 |
|
|
|
John Kerry |
7 |
10 |
5 |
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
4 |
2 |
5 |
|
|
|
John Edwards |
3 |
2 |
4 |
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
3 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
Someone else
(vol.) |
1 |
1 |
- |
|
|
|
Don't know |
37 |
35 |
39 |
|
|
|
CBS News
Poll. Nov. 10-13, 2003.
N=376 likely Democratic primary voters nationwide. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
"From what you have heard or read, can you name
any of the candidates running for the 2004 Democratic nomination for
president?"
If “Yes”:
"Who is the first one who comes to mind?" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
Yes, can name a candidate |
55 |
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
21 |
|
|
|
|
Wesley Clark |
9 |
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
9 |
|
|
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
2 |
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Other |
2 |
|
|
|
|
No, can't name a candidate |
45 |
|
|
|
|
Zogby
America Poll.Nov. 3-5, 2003. N=558
likely Democratic voters nationwide. MoE ±
4.2. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
". . . If the Democratic primary
for president were held today and the candidates were
[see below],
for whom would you vote?" |
|
|
11/3-5 |
10/15-18 |
9/22-24 |
9/3-5 |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Howard Dean |
15 |
12 |
12 |
16 |
|
|
Wesley Clark |
10 |
10 |
12 |
3 |
|
|
Dick
Gephardt |
9 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
9 |
8 |
5 |
12 |
|
|
John Kerry |
7 |
9 |
7 |
13 |
|
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
John Edwards |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
2 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
Other |
6 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
Not sure |
34 |
38 |
43 |
38 |
|
|
Bob Graham |
n/a |
n/a |
1 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
7/16-17 |
3/5-7 |
1/24-26 |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
12 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
12 |
18 |
21 |
|
|
|
Dick
Gephardt |
12 |
11 |
9 |
|
|
|
John Kerry |
9 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
4 |
6 |
|
|
|
John Edwards |
3 |
4 |
7 |
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
2 |
1 |
n/a |
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
1 |
n/a |
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
Other |
6 |
7 |
5 |
|
|
|
Not sure |
39 |
37 |
33 |
|
|
|
Wesley Clark |
n/a |
- |
- |
|
|
|
Gary Hart |
n/a |
3 |
6 |
|
|
|
Marist
College Poll. Oct. 27-29,
2003. N=339 Democrats and
Democratic-leaning independents nationwide. MoE
± 5.5. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"If the next Democratic presidential primary were held today,
whom would you support if the candidates are . . . ?" |
|
|
10/03 |
4/03 |
2/03 |
1/03 |
10/02 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Howard Dean |
16 |
3 |
- |
1 |
1 |
|
Joseph Lieberman |
12 |
17 |
18 |
20 |
21 |
|
Richard
Gephardt |
10 |
13 |
8 |
9 |
18 |
|
John Kerry |
9 |
10 |
14 |
14 |
6 |
|
Wesley Clark |
8 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
Al Sharpton |
5 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
|
John Edwards |
4 |
5 |
4 |
7 |
3 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
3 |
3 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
1 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
Undecided |
32 |
39 |
42 |
35 |
38 |
|
Bob Graham |
n/a |
2 |
3 |
6 |
n/a |
|
Gary Hart |
n/a |
3 |
6 |
5 |
n/a |
|
Tom Daschle |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
10 |
|
CBS News/New
York Times Poll. Sept. 28-Oct. 1,
2003. N=353 Democratic primary voters
nationwide. MoE ± 5
(total sample). |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
(A) "Who would you like to see
the Democratic party nominate as its presidential
candidate in 2004: Howard Dean, John Edwards,
Richard Gephardt, Bob Graham, John Kerry, Dennis
Kucinich, Joe Lieberman, Carol Moseley
Braun, Al Sharpton, or someone else?"
Names rotated. Half-sample (Form A)
(B) "Who would you like to see
the Democratic Party nominate as its
presidential candidate in 2004: General
Wesley Clark, Dr. Howard Dean, Senator John
Edwards, Congressman Richard Gephardt, Senator Bob Graham,
Senator John Kerry, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, Senator Joe
Lieberman, former Senator Carol Moseley
Braun, Reverend Al Sharpton, or someone else?"
Names rotated. Half-sample (Form B).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
(A)
Names
Alone |
(B)
Names &
Titles |
Combined
Results |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Wesley Clark |
14 |
10 |
12 |
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
5 |
15 |
10 |
|
|
Howard Dean |
9 |
9 |
9 |
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
5 |
13 |
9 |
|
|
John Kerry |
4 |
11 |
8 |
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
7 |
1 |
4 |
|
|
Al Sharpton |
3 |
4 |
3 |
|
|
Bob Graham |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
John Edwards |
1 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Other (vol.) |
27 |
10 |
18 |
|
|
Don't know |
21 |
20 |
21 |
|
|
Newsweek
Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates.
Sept. 18-19, 2003.
N=377 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide. MoE ±
6. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Now I'm going to name 10 Democrats in the race
for president. After I read you their names, tell
me which ONE you would most like to see nominated
as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate in 2004.
Here are the choices
[see below].
. . . Al Gore and Hillary Clinton have both said they
will NOT run for president in 2004. If they were
both in the race NOW, would either Al Gore or
Hillary Clinton be your FIRST CHOICE for the Democratic
presidential nomination, or would you prefer another candidate?"
If "Yes," probe:
"Which one: Al Gore or
Hillary Clinton?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Nomination preferences,
factoring in Gore and Clinton support: |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
33 |
|
|
|
|
|
Al Gore |
28 |
|
|
|
|
|
Wesley Clark |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Dick Gephardt |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
None (vol.) |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Don't know |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Quinnipiac University Poll.
Sept. 11-15, 2003.
N=466 Democratic voters nationwide. MoE
± 4.5. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Would
you like to see Al Gore run for the Democratic nomination for
president
in 2004 or not?" |
|
|
Yes |
No |
Don't
Know |
. |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
. |
|
|
9/03 |
43 |
53 |
4 |
. |
|
|
ABC News Poll.
Sept. 10-13, 2003.
Registered voters nationwide who are Democrats
or Democratic-leaning independents. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
"If
the 2004 Democratic presidential primary or caucus
in your state were being held today, and the candidates were
[see below],
for whom would you vote?"
Names rotated |
|
|
|
ALL |
Likely
Voters |
|
. |
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
. |
|
Joseph Lieberman |
21 |
19 |
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
15 |
20 |
|
|
|
John Kerry |
14 |
19 |
|
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
14 |
15 |
|
|
|
Wesley Clark |
6 |
6 |
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
5 |
5 |
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
4 |
4 |
|
|
|
John
Edwards |
3 |
4 |
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
3 |
4 |
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
None (vol.) |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
Wouldn't vote (vol.) |
2 |
0 |
|
|
|
No opinion |
8 |
- |
|
|
|
Earlier polling on the Democratic
nomination
|