Polls listed
chronologically.
All data are from nationwide surveys of Americans 18 & older. |
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NBC
News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted
by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill
McInturff (R). Oct. 29-31, 2004.
N=500 likely voters
nationwide. |
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"As you may know, presidents
are chosen not by direct popular vote, but by the electoral college system
in which each state casts electoral votes based on
its population. Over the past one hundred years, with the
exception of the 2000 election, the winning presidential candidate
has won both the popular and electoral vote. Let
us suppose in this election that one candidate were to win the popular vote
and another candidate were to win the electoral
vote. Who would you favor serving as the next president of the United
States -- the one who wins the popular
vote, or the one who wins the electoral vote?" |
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Popular
Vote |
Electoral
Vote |
Unsure |
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% |
% |
% |
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10/04 |
50 |
41 |
9 |
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ABC News Tracking Poll.
Oct. 24-27, 2004.
N=1,747 likely voters nationwide. MoE ±
2.5. Rolling sample. Fieldwork by TNS. |
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"How confident are you that the
votes for president across the country will
be accurately counted this year: very confident, somewhat confident, not too
confident or not confident at all?" |
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Very |
Some-
what |
Not
Too |
Not
At all |
Unsure |
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% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
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10/04 |
25 |
46 |
20 |
8 |
1 |
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"And how confident are you that
your own vote for president will be accurately counted this year: very
confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not confident at all?" |
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Very |
Some-
what |
Not
Too |
Not
At all |
Unsure |
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% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
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10/04 |
62 |
29 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
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"Imagine that in Tuesday's
presidential election one candidate wins the popular vote, but another wins
the majority of votes in the electoral college. If that were to happen who
do you think should become president: the winner
of the popular vote or the winner of the electoral college?" |
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Popular
Vote |
Electoral
College |
Unsure |
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% |
% |
% |
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10/04 |
54 |
40 |
6 |
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11/00 |
63 |
32 |
6 |
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Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by
Ipsos-Public Affairs.
Oct. 22-24, 2004. N=1,000
adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1. |
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"How confident are you that the
votes in your state will be counted accurately . . . ?" |
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Very |
Somewhat |
Not Very |
Not At All |
Unsure |
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% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
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10/22-24/04 |
55 |
33 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
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"How likely is it that on
November 3, the day after the election, there will not be a clear winner of
the presidential election? Would you say very
likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?" |
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Very |
Somewhat |
Not Too |
Not At All |
Unsure |
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% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
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10/22-24/04 |
24 |
36 |
22 |
16 |
2 |
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"How likely is it that the
results of the November 2 presidential election will be challenged in court?
Would you say very likely, somewhat likely, not
too likely, or not at all likely?" |
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Very |
Somewhat |
Not Too |
Not At All |
Unsure |
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% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
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10/22-24/04 |
20 |
28 |
27 |
23 |
2 |
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ABC News Poll.
Oct. 13, 2004. N=566
registered voters nationwide who watched the
third presidential debate. Respondents were initially
interviewed Oct. 9-12. MoE ± 4.5 (for all
registered voters). Fieldwork by TNS. |
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"Who,
in your opinion, won the debate?" |
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Bush |
Kerry |
Tie |
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% |
% |
% |
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ALL |
41 |
42 |
14 |
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Democrats |
5 |
81 |
11 |
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Republicans |
73 |
12 |
11 |
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Independents |
35 |
42 |
22 |
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Party ID of
debate viewers: |
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% |
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Democrats |
30 |
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Republicans |
38 |
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Independents |
28 |
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ABC News Poll.
Oct. 8, 2004. N=515
registered voters nationwide who watched the
second presidential debate. Respondents were initially
interviewed Oct. 5-7. MoE ± 4.5 (for all
registered voters). Fieldwork by TNS. |
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"Who,
in your opinion, won the debate?" |
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Bush |
Kerry |
Tie |
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% |
% |
% |
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ALL |
41 |
44 |
13 |
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Bush supporters |
84 |
1 |
13 |
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Kerry
supporters |
2 |
85 |
12 |
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Party ID of
debate viewers: |
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% |
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Democrats |
35 |
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Republicans |
32 |
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Independents |
29 |
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Time
Poll
conducted by Schulman, Ronca &
Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs. Oct. 6-7, 2004.
N=1,024 registered voters nationwide.
MoE ± 3. |
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"Last night/Tuesday
night there was a debate between the two vice-presidential
candidates, John Edwards and Dick Cheney.
. . . Just based on what you saw or heard, which candidate
-- John Edwards or Dick Cheney -- do you
think won that debate?"
Names rotated |
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Cheney |
Edwards |
Neither
(vol.) |
Both/Tie
(vol.) |
Unsure |
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% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
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10/6-7/04 |
33 |
28 |
4 |
9 |
26 |
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"Did the
vice-presidential
debate between
John Edwards and Dick Cheney
make you more likely to vote
for John Kerry, more likely to vote for George Bush, or did it not
really have any impact on your vote one way or another?"
Names rotated |
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Bush |
Kerry |
No Impact |
Unsure |
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% |
% |
% |
% |
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10/6-7/04 |
15 |
16 |
68 |
1 |
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"Turning now to
the presidential candidates: The first of three presidential debates
was held last Thursday evening between George Bush
and John Kerry. . . . Regardless of how you might
vote, which candidate -- George Bush or
John Kerry -- do you think won last
Thursday's debate, just based on what you've
seen or heard?"
Names rotated |
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Bush |
Kerry |
Neither
(vol.) |
Both
(vol.) |
Unsure |
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% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
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10/6-7/04 |
23 |
59 |
2 |
3 |
13 |
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"Did the
presidential
debate between John Kerry and
George Bush make you more likely to vote for John Kerry, more likely
to vote for George Bush, or did it not have any
impact on your vote one way or another?"
Names rotated |
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Bush |
Kerry |
No Impact |
Unsure |
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% |
% |
% |
% |
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10/6-7/04 |
14 |
30 |
55 |
1 |
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Earlier White House 2004
miscellany
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