White House 2000: Republicans
All data are from nationwide surveys of
Americans 18 & older. |
See also :
Political Figures |
| Polls listed chronologically. |
. |
. |
Preference
for Republican Nominee |
| NBC News/Wall
Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and
Robert Teeter (R). Latest: March 2-5, 2000. N=1,213 adults nationwide. |
. |
2000: Asked of Republicans/leaners and independents who say they will vote in the Republican
primary.
1999: Asked of Republicans/leaners.
"Let me read you a list of people who might seek the Republican nomination
for president in the year 2000. If you were voting today in the next Republican primary
for president, which one of the following candidates would you vote for? . . ." If
"Not sure": "Well, which way do you lean?" |
|
|
3/00 |
1/00 |
12/99 |
10/99 |
9/99 |
7/99 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
George W. Bush |
59 |
63 |
59 |
68 |
59 |
59 |
|
John McCain |
30 |
15 |
18 |
15 |
7 |
3 |
|
Alan Keyes |
8 |
7 |
4 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
None/Other (vol.) |
- |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
Undecided |
3 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
|
Steve Forbes |
n/a |
6 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
|
Orrin Hatch |
n/a |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
Gary Bauer |
n/a |
1 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
| Gallup/CNN/USA
Today Poll. Latest: Feb. 25-27, 2000. N=444 registered Republicans and leaners
nationwide. MoE +/- 5. |
. |
| "Next, I'm going to
read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president. After I
read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to
support for the Republican nomination for president this year . . . ." |
|
|
G. W.
Bush |
John
McCain |
Alan
Keyes |
Other |
Not
Sure |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2/25-27 |
57 |
33 |
4 |
- |
6 |
|
|
2/20-21 |
58 |
31 |
3 |
- |
8 |
|
|
2/14-15 |
58 |
31 |
3 |
- |
8 |
|
|
2/4-6 |
56 |
34 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
|
|
1/25-26 |
65 |
15 |
4 |
9 |
7 |
|
|
1/17-19 |
63 |
19 |
1 |
9 |
8 |
|
|
1/13-16 |
61 |
22 |
3 |
8 |
6 |
|
|
1/7-10 |
63 |
18 |
2 |
8 |
9 |
|
|
12/20-21 |
60 |
17 |
4 |
12 |
7 |
|
|
12/9-12 |
64 |
18 |
4 |
11 |
3 |
|
|
11/18-21 |
63 |
16 |
2 |
13 |
6 |
|
|
| ABC
News and The Washington Post. Latest: Feb. 24-27, 2000. N=1,203 adults
nationwide. |
| . |
Asked of Republicans
and leaners:
"Suppose your state holds a Republican primary or caucus for president in 2000 and
the candidates are [see below]. For whom would you vote? I'll read the
list again . . . ." |
|
|
2/24-27
*** |
2/3-6
*** |
1/00
*** |
12/99
*** |
10/99
* |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
George W. Bush |
63 |
63 |
68 |
72 |
75 |
|
John McCain |
31 |
26 |
17 |
13 |
10 |
|
Alan Keyes |
6 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
5 |
|
Undecided |
- |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
Steve Forbes |
n/a |
5 |
3 |
7 |
4 |
|
Orrin Hatch |
n/a |
n/a |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
Gary Bauer |
n/a |
n/a |
1 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
* Conducted by ABC
News
** Conducted by The Washington Post
*** Conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post |
|
| Newsweek
Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Feb. 24-25, 2000. N=340
registered Republicans and leaners nationwide. MoE +/- 6. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
| "As of today, which
of the following would you most like to see nominated as the Republican Party's candidate
for president this year? . . . ." |
|
|
2/24-25 |
2/3-4 |
1/13-14 |
1/6-7 |
11/99 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
George W. Bush |
56 |
57 |
60 |
63 |
62 |
|
John McCain |
27 |
26 |
18 |
13 |
13 |
|
Alan Keyes |
6 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
|
Other/Undecided |
10 |
10 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
|
Steve Forbes |
n/a |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
|
Gary Bauer |
n/a |
1 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
|
Orrin Hatch |
n/a |
n/a |
3 |
2 |
2 |
|
| CBS News Poll.
Latest: Feb. 12-14, 2000. N=321 likely Republican primary voters nationwide. |
| . |
| "If the Republican
presidential primary were being held today, who would you vote for: [see below]?"
^ |
|
|
2/12-14 * |
2/6-10 |
12/99 |
11/99 * |
10/99 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
George W. Bush |
53 |
52 |
64 |
68 |
63 |
|
John McCain |
33 |
32 |
16 |
8 |
14 |
|
Alan Keyes |
5 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
|
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
Undecided |
9 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
|
Steve Forbes |
n/a |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
Gary Bauer |
n/a |
n/a |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
Orrin Hatch |
n/a |
n/a |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
* Conducted with The New York
Times
^ Question prior to 2/12-14: "Who would you like to see the Republican Party
nominate as its presidential candidate in 2000: [see below]?" |
|
| Pew Research
Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research
Associates. Latest: Feb. 9-14, 2000. N=412 registered Republicans and leaners nationwide. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
| "Now
I am going to read you the names of some possible candidates for the Republican nomination
for president in 2000. After I read all the names, please tell me which one you would most
like to see nominated as the Republican Party's candidate for president. [See
below.] . . . Well, as of today, to whom do you most lean?" |
|
|
2/00 |
1/00 |
12/99 |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
George W. Bush |
62 |
69 |
64 |
|
|
John McCain |
30 |
17 |
17 |
|
|
Alan Keyes |
6 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
None of them
(vol.) |
1 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
Don't
know/Refused (vol.) |
1 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
Steve Forbes |
n/a |
5 |
8 |
|
|
Gary Bauer |
n/a |
2 |
1 |
|
|
Orrin Hatch |
n/a |
1 |
2 |
|
|
| Fox
News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Latest: Feb. 9-10, 2000. N=900 registered voters
nationwide. MoE +/- 3 (total sample). |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
Asked of Republicans (MoE +/-
5.5):
"Thinking ahead to the year 2000, which of
the following people do you think should be the Republican presidential nominee? . .
." |
|
|
2/9-10 |
1/26-27 |
1/12-13 |
12/6-7 |
11/17-18 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Texas Governor George W. Bush |
55 |
70 |
64 |
65 |
66 |
|
Arizona Senator John McCain |
32 |
12 |
17 |
14 |
10 |
|
Publisher Steve Forbes |
2 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
|
Family Research Council Pres. Gary Bauer |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Former Ambassador Alan Keyes |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
|
Other (vol.) |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
|
Undecided |
8 |
9 |
8 |
11 |
10 |
|
Utah Senator Orrin Hatch |
n/a |
n/a |
2 |
2 |
n/a |
|
| Zogby
International "Zogby America Poll" and Reuters/WHDH-TV/Zogby Poll.
Latest: Feb. 4-6, 2000. N=1,024 likely voters nationwide. |
| . |
Asked of Republican voters:
"If the election for the Republican presidential nomination were held today and the
candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?" |
|
|
2/00 |
1/00 |
11/99 |
10/99 |
9/99 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
George W. Bush |
48 |
56 |
59 |
64 |
60 |
|
John McCain |
30 |
12 |
14 |
12 |
4 |
|
Steve Forbes |
4 |
5 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
|
Alan Keyes |
3 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
Gary Bauer |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
Undecided |
14 |
15 |
16 |
12 |
8 |
|
Orrin Hatch |
n/a |
4 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
Pat Buchanan |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
2 |
2 |
|
Elizabeth Dole |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
12 |
|
Dan Quayle |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
4 |
|
| CNN/Time
Poll conducted by Yankelovich Partners. Latest: Feb. 2-3, 2000. N=395 registered
Republicans and leaners nationwide. MoE +/- 4.9. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
| "If you were asked to
vote for a Republican nominee for president today, which of the following Republicans
would you vote for: [see below]?" |
|
|
2/2-3 |
1/12-13 |
1/5-6 |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Texas Governor George W. Bush |
54 |
61 |
59 |
|
|
Arizona Senator John McCain |
28 |
16 |
18 |
|
|
Political commentator Alan
Keyes |
5 |
4 |
3 |
|
|
Businessman Steve Forbes |
3 |
6 |
5 |
|
|
Family Research Council
President Gary Bauer |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
Other (vol.) |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
Not sure |
8 |
8 |
11 |
|
|
Utah Senator Orrin Hatch |
n/a |
2 |
1 |
|
|
| Associated
Press Poll conducted by ICR. Nov. 19-23, 1999. N=1,023 adults nationwide. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
Asked of Republican voters:
"Who would you like to see the Republican Party nominate as its presidential
candidate in 2000 . . . ?" |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
George W. Bush |
60 |
|
|
|
|
|
John McCain |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
Steve Forbes |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Alan Keyes |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gary Bauer |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Orrin Hatch |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
None of the above |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Los
Angeles Times Poll. Nov. 13-18, 1999. N=604 likely Republican primary or caucus
voters nationwide. MoE +/- 4. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
| "If the Republican
primary or caucus for president were being held in your state today and the candidates
were [see below], for whom would you vote . . . ?" |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
George W. Bush |
59 |
|
|
|
|
|
John McCain |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
Steve Forbes |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gary Bauer |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Alan Keyes |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Orrin Hatch |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
| U.S. News
& World Report Poll conducted by the Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Snell Perry
& Associates (D). October 25-28, 1999. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
Asked of Republican voters:
Preference for Republican Nominee: |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
George W. Bush |
66 |
|
|
|
|
John McCain |
13 |
|
|
|
|
Steve Forbes |
7 |
|
|
|
|
Alan Keyes |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Orrin hatch |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Gary Bauer |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
5 |
|
|
|
|
| Marist
College Poll. October 18-20, 1999. N=290 Republicans and leaners nationwide. MoE
+/- 6. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
| "If the next
Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates
are . . . ?" |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
George W. Bush |
62 |
|
|
|
|
|
John McCain |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
Steve Forbes |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gary Bauer |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Alan Keyes |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Orrin Hatch |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Pat Buchanan |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
| ABC News Poll.
Latest: August 19-22, 1999. N=1,031 adults nationwide. |
| . |
Asked of Republicans
and leaners:
"Suppose your state holds a Republican primary or
caucus for president in 2000 and the candidates are [see below]. For whom
would you vote? I'll read the list again . . . ." |
|
|
8/19-22 |
8/4-8 |
3/99 |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
George W. Bush |
56 |
54 |
52 |
|
|
Elizabeth Dole |
14 |
14 |
25 |
|
|
Steve Forbes |
6 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
John McCain |
6 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
Dan Quayle |
5 |
3 |
6 |
|
|
Pat Buchanan |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
Alan Keyes |
3 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
Orrin Hatch |
2 |
1 |
n/a |
|
|
Gary Bauer |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Lamar Alexander |
n/a |
- |
1 |
|
|
John Kasich |
n/a |
n/a |
2 |
|
|
Bob Smith |
n/a |
n/a |
- |
|
|
None (vol.) |
1 |
2 |
- |
|
|
Would not vote (vol.) |
- |
2 |
- |
|
|
Undecided |
3 |
7 |
2 |
|
|
| Gonzales/Arscott
Research & Communications. August 6-14, 1999. N=331 Republican voters
nationwide. MoE +/- 5.5 (total sample). |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
| "If you were voting today
for the 2000 Republican presidential nominee, for whom would you vote among these
candidates: [see below]?" |
|
|
ALL |
Men |
Women |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
George W. Bush |
59 |
65 |
53 |
|
|
|
Elizabeth Dole |
12 |
7 |
17 |
|
|
|
John McCain |
6 |
8 |
4 |
|
|
|
Steve Forbes |
5 |
5 |
5 |
|
|
|
Dan Quayle |
4 |
5 |
3 |
|
|
|
Gary Bauer |
3 |
1 |
5 |
|
|
|
Pat Buchanan |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
|
Orrin Hatch |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
Lamar Alexander |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
Undecided |
7 |
4 |
10 |
|
|
|
| Washington
Post Poll. June 5-6, 1999. N=1,206 adults nationwide. |
| . |
Asked of Republicans and leaners
who are registered voters:
"Suppose your state holds a Republican primary or caucus for president in 2000 and
the candidates are [see below]. For whom would you vote? I'll read the
list again . . . ." |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
George W. Bush |
49 |
|
|
|
|
Elizabeth Dole |
20 |
|
|
|
|
Pat Buchanan |
5 |
|
|
|
|
John McCain |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Dan Quayle |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Steve Forbes |
3 |
|
|
|
|
John Kasich |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Lamar Alexander |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Gary Bauer |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Alan Keyes |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Bob Smith |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
7 |
|
|
|
|
| Research 2000 for
news media clients. Latest: May 5-7, 1999. N=277 likely Republican voters nationwide. |
| . |
| "If you were voting
today for the 2000 Republican nominee for president, which of the following would you vote
for? . . ." |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
George W. Bush |
41 |
|
|
|
|
Elizabeth Dole |
19 |
|
|
|
|
John McCain |
12 |
|
|
|
|
Dan Quayle |
9 |
|
|
|
|
Pat Buchanan |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Steve Forbes |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Lamar Alexander |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Gary Bauer |
1 |
|
|
|
|
John Kasich |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Other (vol.) |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
6 |
|
|
|
|
| Republican
Leadership Council Poll conducted by Greg Strimple & Associates (R). February 1-4,
1999. N=408 likely Republican voters nationwide. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
| "If the Republican
primary election for president were held today and the candidates were [see
below], for whom would you vote?" |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
George W. Bush |
40 |
|
|
|
|
Elizabeth Dole |
27 |
|
|
|
|
Dan Quayle |
9 |
|
|
|
|
Steve Forbes |
6 |
|
|
|
|
John McCain |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Gary Bauer |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Lamar Alexander |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
12 |
|
|
. |
|
Gannett
"Mood of America Poll" conducted by Opinion Research Corporation
. |
Asked of Republicans:
"Which one of the following people do you favor
to be your party's nominee in the year 2000? . . ." |
|
|
1/6-11/99 |
|
|
|
|
% |
|
|
|
George W.
Bush, the son of former President George Bush |
39 |
|
|
|
Elizabeth Dole |
22 |
|
|
|
Jack Kemp |
8 |
|
|
|
Dan Quayle |
6 |
|
|
|
Steve Forbes |
5 |
|
|
|
John McCain |
5 |
|
|
|
Pat Buchanan |
3 |
|
|
|
Gary Bauer |
2 |
|
|
|
Pete Wilson |
0 |
|
|
|
Bob Smith |
0 |
|
|
|
Lamar Alexander |
- |
|
|
|
None |
3 |
|
|
|
Undecided |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
N |
253 |
|
|
|
| Wirthlin
Worldwide (R). November 3, 1998. N=451 Republican primary voters nationwide. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
| "If the Republican
presidential primary were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were
. . . ?" |
|
|
ALL |
Men |
Women |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
George W. Bush Jr. |
41 |
46 |
36 |
|
|
Elizabeth Dole |
13 |
7 |
19 |
|
|
Dan Quayle |
6 |
5 |
7 |
|
|
Jack Kemp |
6 |
6 |
6 |
|
|
Steve Forbes |
4 |
6 |
2 |
|
|
John McCain |
3 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
Newt Gingrich |
3 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
Fred Thompson |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
Alan Keyes |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
Pat Buchanan |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
John Kasich |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
Gary Bauer |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
John Ashcroft |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Lamar Alexander |
1 |
1 |
- |
|
|
Pete Wilson |
1 |
1 |
- |
|
|
Bob Smith |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
Someone else |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
Undecided |
5 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
Refused |
7 |
4 |
11 |
|
|
Harris
Poll
. |
Asked of Republicans:
"Who's your first choice for the Republican
presidential nomination in 2000 . . . ?
"If Colin Powell is not a candidate, who would be your first choice?" |
|
|
7/17-21/98 |
|
|
|
|
|
With
Powell |
Without
Powell |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
Colin Powell |
24 |
n/a |
|
|
|
|
George Bush Jr. |
20 |
27 |
|
|
|
|
Elizabeth Dole |
10 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
Dan Quayle |
7 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Jack Kemp |
5 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
Steve Forbes |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
Christine Whitman |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Newt Gingrich |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Pat Buchanan |
2 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Bill Bennett |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Other/None |
7 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
10 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
N |
279 |
279 |
|
|
|
|
Preference for Republican Vice
Presidential Nominee
| Fox
News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. January 13-14,1999. N=902 registered voters
nationwide. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
Asked of Republicans:
"Which of the same people do you think should be the Republican vice
presidential nominee?" |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
Former Red Cross President Elizabeth Dole |
30 |
|
|
|
|
Texas Governor George W. Bush |
18 |
|
|
|
|
Former Vice President Dan Quayle |
11 |
|
|
|
|
New York Governor George Pataki |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Publisher Steve Forbes |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Former Governor of Tennessee Lamar Alexander |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich |
3 |
|
|
|
|
New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Other |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
